基于SEIPQR模型的工控蠕虫防御策略

潘洁; 叶兰; 赵贺; 张鑫磊

doi:10.11959/j.issn.2096-109x.2022032

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基于SEIPQR模型的工控蠕虫防御策略

学术论文 | 更新时间：2024-06-03

- 基于SEIPQR模型的工控蠕虫防御策略
- Defense strategy of industrial control worm based on SEIPQR model
- 网络与信息安全学报 2022年8卷第3期页码：169-175
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国移动通信集团设计院有限公司，北京 100080
  2. 中国移动通信集团，北京 100032
  3. 中国移动通信集团采购共享服务中心，北京 100053
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "潘洁（1978− ），女，浙江台州人，中国移动通信集团设计院有限公司高级工程师、高级咨询设计师，主要研究方向为通信网络安全" ]
  [ "叶兰（1979− ），女，天津人，中国移动通信集团工程师，主要研究方向网络与数据安全" ]
  [ "赵贺（1982− ），男，北京人，中国移动通信集团采购共享服务中心工程师，主要研究方向为网络与数据安全" ]
  [ "张鑫磊（1994− ），男，北京人，中国移动通信集团采购共享服务中心助理工程师，主要研究方向为网络与数据安全" ]
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.2096-109x.2022032
  中图分类号： TP393
- 网络首发：2022-06，
  
  纸质出版：2022-06-15
- 稿件说明：
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潘洁, 叶兰, 赵贺, 等. 基于SEIPQR模型的工控蠕虫防御策略[J]. 网络与信息安全学报, 2022,8(3):169-175.

Jie PAN, Lan YE, He ZHAO, et al. Defense strategy of industrial control worm based on SEIPQR model[J]. Chinese Journal of Network and Information Security, 2022, 8(3): 169-175.
潘洁, 叶兰, 赵贺, 等. 基于SEIPQR模型的工控蠕虫防御策略[J]. 网络与信息安全学报, 2022,8(3):169-175. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.2096-109x.2022032.

Jie PAN, Lan YE, He ZHAO, et al. Defense strategy of industrial control worm based on SEIPQR model[J]. Chinese Journal of Network and Information Security, 2022, 8(3): 169-175. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.2096-109x.2022032.

摘要

随着社会的发展和技术的进步，计算机病毒也发生了进化，变得越来越复杂，越来越隐蔽。其中蠕虫

病毒更是最早的计算机病毒发展进化成为可以在工控系统上感染并进行传播的工控蠕虫病毒，极大影响工业生产的安全。单一的网络隔离或者打补丁免疫，已经跟不上蠕虫病毒的传播速度。针对该现状，分析蠕虫病毒在工控系统上的传播方式以及特点，在原有网络隔离和补丁的基础上提出一种针对工控蠕虫的防御策略，以达到有效防御蠕虫病毒的目的。该防御策略基于传染病模型的基本思想提出了一个模拟蠕虫传播趋势的数学模型 SEIPQR。该模型包含易感染（susceptible）状态、暴露（exposed）状态、打补丁（patched）状态、感染（infected）状态、隔离（quarantine）状态以及免疫（recovered）状态 6 种状态，创建模型的 6 种状态转换图，对状态转换图得到微积分方程组，在系统设备数量一定的情况下，对方程组进行变换，通过求解基本再生数R0的方法对方程组进行求解，并分析当暴露主机和感染主机的数量为0时模型的6种方程表达式，根据Routh-Hurwitz准则得出当R

＜1时，系统是渐进稳定的；当R

＞1时，系统是不稳定的。通过数值仿真对比在不同打补丁概率、不同隔离率以及不同感染率3种情况下SEIPQR模型的动力学特性，并得到模型的无病平衡点和地方病平衡点。数据仿真结果表明，在整个系统感染蠕虫病毒时，对易感染设备及时地打补丁以及进行网络隔离可以有效抑制工控蠕虫的传播。

Abstract

Computer viruses keep evolving with the development of society and progress of technologies

and they become more complex and hidden.The worm virus is the earliest computer virus

which has evolved to an industrial control worm virus and caused a great impact on the safety of the industrial system.Neither the single network isolation nor the patching immunity is unable to keep up with the spreading of the worm virus.The propagation mode and characteristics of the worm virus in the industrial control system were analyzed.Based on the related works of network isolation and patching

a defense strategy against the worm virus was proposed.This strategy was originated from the fundamental infectious disease model

and then a mathematics model (SEIPQR) was proposed to simulate the trend of worm virus propagation.The model included six situations: Susceptible

Exposed

Infected

Quarantine and Recovered.The state transition diagrams of the model was created

and the calculus equations were obtained from the state transition diagrams.Under the condition that the number of system equipment is fixed

the equations were transformed.The equations were solved by solving the basic regeneration number R0

and six equation expressions of the model ware analyzed when the number of exposed hosts and infected hosts is zero.According to the

principle of the Routh-Hurwitz

the system is asymptotically stable when R

＜1

and unstable if R

＞1.Then the dynamic characteristics of the SEIPQR model under different patching probability

different isolation rate and different infection rate were compared by numerical simulation.Furthermore

the disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point of the model were obtained.The simulation results showed that

when the whole system is infected with worm virus

timely patching the susceptible devices and isolating the network can effectively inhibit the spread of industrial control worm virus.

关键词

Keywords

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